Would you cancel a vacation because it costs more this year? Most Americans have answered that question, and the answer is no.
On November 5, the U.S. Travel Association released its Fall 2026 U.S. Travel Forecast, built on modeling by the research firm Tourism Economics. Its headline: Americans are on track to take a record 2.44 billion trips within the United States in 2026.
I have been in the travel industry since 1989. Here is how I read the new numbers, and what they mean for anyone considering a career as a Tour Director.
More trips, higher prices
Travel costs more this year. The forecast projects travel prices will rise 7.2% in 2026, more than twice the 3.4% rate of overall inflation. Travelers are spending more mainly on gasoline and airfares.
Adjusted for inflation, total travel spending is projected to slip 0.7%, from $1.36 trillion in 2025 to $1.35 trillion in 2026. Strong demand from Americans is partly offset by fewer international visitors. The forecast expects growth to return in 2027, to $1.38 trillion.
The point to take from this: people are paying more and traveling anyway. Domestic travel makes up 88% of all U.S. travel spending, about $1.19 trillion, and the forecast expects it to fully return to its 2019 level, after inflation, in 2027.
Fewer flights, more time on the road
How Americans travel is shifting. Air trips are expected to fall 0.8% in 2026, while trips by car and other modes rise 1.9%. Overnight trips, those with at least one night away from home, are also expected to grow 1.9%.
That last number matters most to a Tour Director. A Tour Director travels with the group for the entire tour, from the first day to the last. A multi-day group tour of the national parks, New England in the fall or Washington, D.C. is an overnight trip, and the Tour Director leads the group through every day of it.
When travel costs more, a packaged group tour has a clear appeal: most of the cost is known before the traveler leaves home. The Tour Operator designs the itinerary. The Tour Director keeps the group on that schedule, handles the surprises and makes sure every traveler gets the trip they paid for.
The international picture
The forecast is less encouraging about visitors from other countries. After adjusting for inflation, international visitor spending in the U.S. is projected to fall 6.3% in 2026, about $11 billion, to $163 billion. The U.S. Travel Association does not expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels until 2030.
Even so, the U.S. Travel Association projects about 67.8 million international arrivals this year. Those visitors still need Tour Guides who know their city and Tour Directors who can lead a group across the country. Travel runs the other way, too: in 2025, Americans spent $72 billion more on travel abroad than international visitors spent here, according to the association’s spring forecast. Tours abroad need Tour Directors just as much as tours at home.
What I tell people considering this career
Forecasts rise and fall. What does not change is that a group on the road needs one person who knows what to do when the motorcoach is late, the hotel loses a reservation or a traveler gets sick. That person is the Tour Director, and the job is learned, not guessed.
The International Guide Academy (IGA) has been Training and Certifying Tour Directors since 1973. The next CITM (Certified International Tour Manager) class is December 5 – 13, 2026 in Denver, Colorado: nine days of in-person training that end with an actual motorcoach tour on the final day. Graduates of the Tour Director class receive free lifetime placement assistance.
If you want to Be Paid To Travel, start with the free IGA catalog. Download it instantly, have a printed copy mailed to you, or both. Questions? Call IGA at 303.434.7557, and every question you have will be answered.
See you in Denver!
Daniel Slater, President
International Guide Academy
Sources: U.S. Travel Association, Fall 2026 U.S. Travel Forecast and press release (November 5, 2026); U.S. Travel Association Spring 2026 forecast press release (May 7, 2026) for the 2025 travel trade figure. Forecast figures are projections.